What's Next For Watches?
Much to the contrary.
It’s been a while. My last note came in the post-Watches & Wonders whirlwind. Now that we’re reaching the unofficial end of summer, I thought it was time for an update on what I’ve been up to. Hopefully, these become more frequent as the fall season gets busier.
I wrote two essays for Hodinkee last month: The first article was about nostalgia and how it’s changing the way we buy watches; the second was about copying, creativity, and calling watches art. Together, they felt like two parts of a series circling around the question posed in this headline: What’s next for watches?
Look at every part of the industry, and this question persists: Watch manufacturing and design; distribution, retail, and sales; advertising & marketing; and of course my little corner of the world, media.
To answer “what’s next,” it’s important to think about what watches even are today. To some, they’re heritage and craftsmanship and luxury; to others, assets, investments, and markets. Much of the underlying tension in the watch world is dealing with this dichotomy: Money and lots of it has flowed into watches over the past few years. This can be good, except when it’s not. It brings awareness and cultural relevance but also thieves and scammers; new collectors but also more commercialism. But as the growth slows and the money dries up, we’re wondering what’s next after the watch industry’s big, pandemic-boosted boom.
To take watch design, since it’s probably the most palpable part of this: Sure, the proliferation of integrated steel sports watches, coupled with the heritage reissue boom of the past decade-plus, has been fun, but it feels like that’s run its course. Some of the indies have articulated a strong vision for watchmaking, but what else is next?
Meanwhile, it feels like there’s as much disdain as ever for “watch media,” whatever that term even means to you. Of course, there is no "Watch Illuminati,” as Cam at GQ jokes – or if there is, I’m not invited to the seance. Most controversies in the watch world – both those real and those imagined – seem to eventually land on the same questions about watch media nowadays. But this is my point: Everyone seems to be frustrated with the status quo, implicitly asking: What’s next?
This brings us to the Rolex–Bucherer acquisition. The general sentiment seems to be that this was a move of strength by Rolex. I guess that’s true to some extent – spending a few billion to acquire a retailer that was for sale since its leader (Jörg Bucherer) has no heirs certainly says something, but I think the opposite is actually true. Rolex is a famously conservative company (not joining Instagram until 2015), and this feels like a fittingly conservative move. After all, only in the watch industry would buying a (mostly bricks-and-mortar) retailer that’s been around for 150 years be considered “shocking” or “disruptive.”
Sure, some of it was probably defensive (best Bucherer not end up with another conglomerate, or perhaps worse, another retailer like Watches of Switzerland), but above all, this move helps to secure the status quo, at least for a while, where Rolex is dominant. Whether it better positions Rolex to sell new or pre-owned, in physical spaces or online, is mostly beside the point.
But a change to the status quo is never as far off as it seems. I always like to reference this article from 2014, when Rolex announced Jean-Frederic Dufour as its third CEO in just six years. “The company is hoping the new chief executive's ‘young ideas’ will help it capture more market share from [market leader] Swatch Group,” Bloomberg wrote. How quickly things can change!
So what’s next for watches? I’m not sure I can answer that question directly, but it’s helpful for me to remember what first attracted me to watches. In a world that emphasizes productivity, efficiency, and GaryVee, watches are none of those things; even the ones that purport to pursue such ideals will always pale in comparison to the phones in our pockets. Wearing a watch today is a contrary act. It strikes some as downright luxurious to spend so much time thinking about such anachronistic things.
And perhaps it is a luxury,1 but it didn’t always seem that way. What I enjoyed when I first got into watches is what keeps me coming back. Discovering a new reference and soon enough finding myself deep on an esoteric forum in a language I don’t know. Poring over case or dial details to try to understand details and differences; mostly, the stories of watches, their owners, of those who collect them.
Over the past few years, it feels like watches have become a little less of a contrary act, and started to look a bit more like everything else. But a change to the status quo is never as far off as it seems.
Anyway, here are some of the most important articles I’ve written over the past few months…
Auctions
Covering auctions has been odd since the Franken Speedmaster. Here’s what I wrote after the New York sales:
“At their best, watches are a reflection of the design, culture, history, and people who made them and who collect them. My fear is that, right now, the watches that dominate conversations – not just infamous Frankenwatches, but also overpriced ‘hype’ watches or whatever other money grab you want to single out – are doing exactly that: holding up a mirror, merely a reflection of the current culture from which they came.”
As I pointed out in both Geneva and New York coverage, “auctions can be marketing as much as they're a true market,” with collectors, dealers, and brands often involved in making sure auction results continue to project confidence.
A couple more auction highlights:
What This Vintage Cartier Tank Cintrée Tells Us About The Future Of Restoration (thought-provoking!)
More Than Highlights: Everything I Saw While Attending My First Auctions In Geneva
Vintage Watches
Meanwhile, I’ve tried to go in-depth on some vintage watches. A few favorites:
How Piaget Defined the 1970s, And How It Can Do The Same Today
And a fun one: 10 Of the Greatest Missing Watches (Updated!)
Other Vintage Finds: A Unique Cartier Cheich In White Gold; An Original Vacheron Constantin 1921 (From 1919); Photo Report: Jaeger-Lecoultre Introduces Its Second Vintage Capsule Of ‘The Collectibles’
Business
A few in-depth articles that are more about the business of watches than the watches
Indies
Finally, highlighting a few of the most exciting young indies
That’s all for now. As always, thanks for reading anything I write. If you prefer to listen, check out our podcast, Significant Watches.
-Tony
P.S. I (finally) listened to the podcast Articles of Interest and its 8-part series “American Ivy,” all about prep. A lot is said about prep clothing, but this is the best thing I’ve seen on it. Eric, have you listened to it?
Okay, it definitely is a luxury.
I hope you write here more often... can be busy, and seem like a chore, but it’s purer than having to stand behind the corporate party line 🫡
Hi Tony - this was the best synopsis of the watch world I've read lately. This year, I've found myself wondering if there's simply not much left to say about watches as the price and interest-level has exploded during the pandemic. It's felt like the end of the watch road, but maybe I've just missed Rescapement.