Reflections On Two Years In Watches | September Update
And 15 mostly random lessons and musings on the watch industry, along with Watchlist picks from Cartier, Jaeger-LeCoultre, and more.
Welcome to my regular update, and sorry for taking a few weeks off. I was in Switzerland for Geneva Watch Days then took a short vacation (photo of my vacation watch at the end). My Hodinkee highlights and a few auction picks on the Watchlist below, but first, thoughts on my two years in watches.
In this issue: Albishorn, Audemars Piguet, Berneron, Cartier, Daniel Roth, F.P. Journe, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Paul Breguette, Patek Philippe, Taylor Swift, TikTok, YouTube, and more.
The question I’m asked most often, in some form or another, is whether or not I still “enjoy” watches or if I regret making a profession out of what started as a passion.
Usually, I stumble through some sort of “lol I only regret it sometimes,” or joke that I sure don’t miss the billable hours of an attorney as a kind of non-answer answer.
Now that I’ve been at Hodinkee full-time for two years, here’s a short attempt to answer that question. After that, a few more random lessons and observations.
Just the other day, I was talking to the owner of a smallish watch brand here in the States. His company is working on scaling its domestic manufacturing capabilities (full story soon), and he explained reaching scale like this:
“It’s fun and easy to make one watch, it’s hard to make 100, and it’s almost f**ing impossible to make 1,000. Making the first one is fun because it’s a prototype – you’re not keeping track of costs or how long it takes, you’re just trying to figure it out. But when you try to make 100, you have to start keeping track of all those costs. So it’s the math that makes it less fun. As soon as you take something that you’re passionate about and realize you have to make money, it’s different.”
By the time you’re making 1,000 of something, every cent matters.
The first couple of years of this newsletter felt kind of like that prototype. It made some money, but I didn’t keep track that closely because it didn’t matter. It was fun. A prototype.
This isn’t a “money ruins everything” screed – I wrote about the “investment mindset” last time. But more like: Now that it’s a job, sometimes I struggle to think of watches as anything but a business nowadays. Watch brands need to make money. Creating content costs money. And yeah, that’s affected how I enjoy them.
That’s also because watches have become big business, and brands and the industry treat it as such. We see it with obvious cost-cutting, process efficiencies, and price hikes. It’s so easy to get frustrated and wonder why a brand made a certain decision before shrugging your shoulders and muttering to yourself quarterly earnings. Maybe this was always the case and we’re just more tuned into it now.
But as money flowed into watches and luxury conglomerates gobbled up brands and manufacturers – again, remember the investment mindset – craftsmanship became corporatized. The modern business of luxury watches is fascinating, but that’s different from being compelled by the product itself.1
But, this is also what makes it all the more exciting when we do see brands or watchmakers make decisions that seem to defy cold financial calculations. When we see genuine creativity, risk-taking, or innovation. When we see decisions made that feel counter to a company’s short-term financial motivations.
When I see this type of creativity or risk-taking, or feel it in the way a business treats its clients, I try to cover it.
Similarly, creating good content isn’t cheap; especially video, which is what everyone wants nowadays. But when I’m able to work on a larger project that’s removed from the day-to-day release schedule or PR narrative, it’s more enjoyable than anything.
When I see this type of creativity or work on that type of project, it reminds me why I still enjoy watches.
Two years in, here are a few more short and mostly random thoughts. Some of these may become full stories at some point, but until then:
There is still a general lack of transparency in the watch industry and I think it’s also the biggest threat to the industry. Media and creators who aren’t transparent about what’s paid advertising and what’s not. Brands that aren’t transparent about manufacturers and suppliers. Dealers and auction houses that aren’t transparent about the condition of inventory. Dealers and creators who you don’t realize are actually moonlighting as such, meanwhile supporting themselves with a “traditional” job. There are signs this is changing2 – newer independents like Fleming, Biver, and Berneron have been quite transparent about their suppliers for example – but there’s still a way to go.
A short list of words I try not to use in writing: charming, arguably, chic, fun, funky, entry-level, high-end, icon, interesting, rock (verb), timepiece, very, workhorse. There are many more.
I think far too much about why any particular article is published – the story behind the story. I hate being used (don’t we all?). For example, last year a dealer showed me a previously unknown Cartier Chiech and gave me an “exclusive” on covering it.3 Of course, a day later GQ covered the same watch as part of a coordinated campaign. I still covered an important Cartier, but I felt like an unwitting part of a marketing effort in a way I didn’t like. Since then, I’ve probably passed on some great stories (to my detriment) because I didn’t like this particular feeling. The dealer sold the Chiech soon after those articles published.
What’s the difference between a “client” and a “customer”; when is someone a client, and when are they a customer? Is it mostly a money thing?
Deluxe is the best book on the luxury industry, even though it was published in 2007. It describes the evolution of luxury to attract the “aspirational” class and not just the wealthy as the world’s middle class grew (mostly in China and India). The book’s subtitle, “how luxury lost its luster,” hints at how this happened. The last few years have been defined by the opposite: brands seem more focused than ever on serving only their highest-value clients with extremely limited and expensive releases. This explains almost every common trend or gripe in watches: price increases, accessibility, and so on. When the middle class was growing, brands adapted their business to reach these customers. Now, increasing inequality is the defining economic trend, and luxury brands are adjusting their strategies accordingly. At least, this is a bit of a theory I’m working on.
Dealers should not be represented by PR firms.
Audemars Piguet’s AP Chronicles is probably the best digital site by a brand. Many great short and long articles with tons of historical and archival information.
YouTube is the most powerful platform for watches. The view counts of some of these creators, who are sometimes making great videos but who I’ve also never heard of, is astounding. But brands seem to have mostly no idea what to do with YouTube. It also can’t be controlled because there’s always another guy with too much time on his hands who can cut videos together in his basement at night.
It’s easy to get traffic, but hard to build a true audience. So much of media in the 2010s was focused on getting traffic because that was the only real way to support an ad business. In the 2020s, it’s about building a real, loyal audience and figuring out how to monetize that (subscriptions, etc.).
I’ve always felt that the conflict of interest perceived when commerce and content mix is a bit overblown. At least, I don’t think it’s any worse than the conflicts that advertising presents.
In collecting, there’s a thin line between rarity and obscurity. Rarity requires desirability. Otherwise, it’s just a Croton Acquamedico (one of my favorite essays about The Sickness).
One theme I’ve talked about is how the big brands will continue to get bigger; meanwhile, there will also be a thriving ecosystem of small and independent brands. Everything in the middle is going to struggle. Much of this is because the big tech and social platforms reinforce a winner-take-all dynamic. For example:
Two Reels I posted a day apart. Guess who’s still getting DMs about buying a Cartier envelope watch? Meanwhile, I probably couldn’t give away a Duoplan. Despite the efforts of many, not much is happening at the intersection of technology and watches. Technology hasn’t led to much disruption; watch sales are still mostly manual, either in person or via texts/DMs. Most of these efforts don’t address the true pain points of enthusiasts.
A few of my favorite “indie” musicians in high school were Vampire Weekend and Lorde (they were, admittedly, pretty popular). A couple of years ago I remember listening to Harry Styles’ “Harry’s House” and Taylor’s “Midnights” and realizing that the “indie” sound of a decade ago had become mainstream. Harry’s music sounded like a sanitized, bubblegum version of 2010 Vampire Weekend, while Taylor used the same producer as Lana and Lorde. The larger point is that so often, the niche or “indie” thing eventually becomes mainstream. We’ve seen the same thing in watches. Ten years ago, vintage watches were cool. Then Longines, Tudor, and others started doing heritage reissues, and now they’re everywhere to the point we feel exhausted by it. Such is the nature of trends.
As someone who’s experimented with short-form video over the past few months, it’s just as hard to create a good Reel or TikTok as it is an article or photograph. That said, while I feel an exceptional article or photograph can elevate into a true expression of individual creativity, I’m not sure the same can be said of most short-form videos about watches. At least, not yet.
Articles Of The Month
I was busy with Geneva Watch Days so this edition is light on recommended reading, but I’ll have a lot of coverage from that in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, I was also on a panel in Geneva about the secondary market if you care to listen. Until then, here are a few photo highlights:
We took an end-of-summer break with Hodinkee Radio, but if you haven’t listened to our episode with Fred Savage yet, here it is:
Other recommendations:
Why Germany’s watchmakers are worried about its far-right party, The Economist
“In addition to worrying that the region’s far-right politics could affect the image of its companies, bosses in Saxony fear that the AfD’s hostile approach to immigrants could discourage much-needed skilled workers from moving to the area, worsening labour shortages.”
Luxury Slump Leads Some Swiss Watchmakers to Seek State Aid, Bloomberg
Girard-Perregaux and Ulysse Nardin (Sowind Group) are the first brands – but surely not the last – to confirm they’re taking advantage of a government program to temporarily slow their production without laying off workers.
Chronext was the first advertiser this newsletter ever had, so it’s weird to read the German company is headed towards bankruptcy (and that I’ve been around long enough to see a full business cycle), WatchPro
The Watchlist
A curated selection of low- or no-reserve auctions from across the internet in hopes of finding you a deal.
1970s Cartier Tank in White Gold
First up is a 1970s Cartier Tank in white gold. As you'll no doubt recall from my Collector's Guide, the vast majority of ‘70s Tanks were made in yellow gold – I documented only about 10 percent in white gold (which would imply about 1,500 ref. 78086s in white, give or take). While a 1970s Tank is relatively common – there are probably a dozen yellow-gold examples on the market at any given time – it’s much harder to find in white gold. This example looks to be in good condition: The Mark 2 dial has no visible cracks, and it comes on a signed Cartier deployant.
Check out this 1970s white gold Tank ref. 78086 at a Zurich auction ending September 18, where it seems sure to pass its CHF 1,000-2,000 estimate if it’s noticed.
Buyer Beware: Bad Cartier Tank Dial
Here’s another 1970s Cartier Tank ref. 78086. But as best I can tell, the dial isn’t legit. Refer again to my Cartier Collector’s Guide again and you’ll remember there are three dial types from the 1970s, and this one is something of a mashup of all three that just doesn’t make sense. At least, it’s something I haven’t documented before.
First, it has an early “wide A” – extremely rare, and something you wouldn’t typically find on a later serial like this one (serial number 13,xxx). I’ve also never seen a wide A with a secret signature, which you’ll see at 7 o’clock here (secret signatures come only in later dials). Compare the dial above to the dial types below and you’ll see it doesn’t match any:
This Tank is part of Bonham’s Watches sale on September 11, but I’d stay away.
Patek “Golf Watch” By Gilbert Albert
It’s not all unexplainable Cartiers at Bonham’s. While Gilbert Albert is most associated with daring designs and asymmetrical cases, he also designed a bunch of other less-discussed watches for Patek like this golfer’s watch. Its segmented dial and linear hour markers immediately stand out. In fact, Xhevdet Rexhepi told me he took inspiration for the dial of his Minute Inerte from the ref. 783.
The ornate matching wreath pattern on the case and chain brings the entire look together. Designed for golfers to hang on their bags before wristwatches could truly stand up to the impact of a swing, these golfer’s watches are true products of the mid-20th century. I’ve had examples from Seiko (the best!) and Eterna, and you can find them from other brands, too. Charlie Dunne has also done a nice job documenting the Patek “Montres Golf.”
Unfortunately, the dial here looks a little dirty, but it’s still an underappreciated piece of Patek history. Find this Patek golfer’s watch with an estimate of £4–6,000 in Bonham’s Watches sale today.
1930s Jaeger-LeCoultre Reverso
If you follow me on Instagram, you know I’ve been spending a lot of time with the Reverso lately, so I was excited to see a real vintage example pop up on eBay. True vintage Jaeger-LeCoultre Reversos are rare, especially in original condition. Those swivel cases weren’t exactly waterproof, so most dials get swapped or refinished.
This is a second-generation Reverso. While the first generation used tiny Tavannes movements, JLC developed its own movement for this second generation, with center seconds (as seen here), or sub-seconds. It also started signing the dial with the full brand name, as opposed to just “Reverso,” with slight variations for different markets. The Jaeger and FAB Suisse here indicate it would’ve been for the French market.
Again, the dial is far from perfect, but most old Reversos aren’t. The eBay auction for this Jaeger Reverso ends today and sits at about $3,000 as I write this.
Paul Breguette Triple Calendar
Finally, here’s a handsome Paul Breguette triple calendar. Brands don’t really make triple calendars nowadays, but I love the complication because it’s actually kind of dumb and a pain to set. This Paul Breguette looks exactly like a similar watch that Girard-Perrgeaux made in the mid-20th century: Eggshell dial, Breguet numerals, stepped stainless steel 34mm case, and faceted lugs.
According to some forum threads, Paul Breguette was the watch brand for Kay Jewelers in the U.S., with the watches made by Ebel in Switzerland.
I once talked to Cam Wolf of GQ about a similar GP I had and never set. I had it simply because I loved how it looked and it’s got all the design cues of a more expensive watch:
The eBay auction for this Paul Breguette ends Sunday, and sits at under $400 as of now.
Finally, I enjoyed watching Adam Golden and Eric Wind chop it up about vintage watches for 20+ minutes. As always, if you've made it this far, please hit the heart ❤️ on this post to show others who are just discovering my newsletter it’s worth a subscription (it’s all I ask!).
-Tony
Yes, this is part of the appeal of vintage watches for me.
This is because collectors have become much more discerning, especially in a down market.
Another lesson: “exclusives” are almost always overrated.
You’re a real one Tony
Tony, is there a list of watches you avoid just like there is for words?!?! As always, great piece ; )