I think one very crucial factor is missing: vox populi. almost unpredictable to get right, FPJ got it right not because he planned it but because it just resonated (see what I did there?). I assume it will be challenging to replicate although Moser is close I would say.
Agreed. I won’t speak for the author, but some of the way that’s captured is by giving ‘bonus pts’ (especially to akrivia) for young founder-watchmakers who seem to have tapped into something. But yes, the mob is fickle.
Thanks for both comments. I guess what you meant was basically luck, as it is hard to predict the shifting taste of the mass. Often it is the timing as well. For example, FP Journe set up a boutique in Beijing in 2010 but had to exit 7 years later. The designs were perhaps just too early for the China market, where the collectors there then and maybe even now only go after Rolex and Patek. Companies can do all the right things, but timing and luck are just cannot be predicted.
I have just read your website. Nice work. Very impressive. Keep it up. Thank you for sharing your site, it's very useful and informative. You're the best writer!
There was a factor mentioned that is understated, the fact that Watchbox cornered the market and was able to increase prices. Auctions are the same, they are mechanisms to increase prices by showing high demand. If Watchbox did the same for one of the brands you listed, the result could be replicated
Thanks for chiming in and I agree. Watchbox's parent company is the AD to FPJ, Moser and some other brands, so it is their jobs to promote the brands. On the other hand, they need to pick the winners to bet on too. They are the "Insiders" in this industry, so it is useful to see which brands they put their time and money on. For the independent brands, they need to seek out such dealers who have social media followers and work hard to promote the brands. Cheers.
Hello! I'm not familiar with Moritz Grossman and I just did some searches on the web. The company was founded in 2008 and yearly production volume is 200. I searched on Chrono24 there were 17 watches. In comparison, there were 171 FP Journe watches and 50 De Bethune watches for sale. It seems that Moritz Grossman is a very exclusive brand with low production volume. I'm sure that Moritz Grossman produces exceptional timepieces based on what I read about them. Among German brands, Lange is the undisputed leader in terms of brand reputation. If we consider potential value growth similar to FP Journe, Lange is often considered a top choice, as they seem to be under-valued. The scarcity of sports model Odysseus should help overall brand image. I didn't include Lange in this article as it is not an independent company. Hope this helps!
I think one very crucial factor is missing: vox populi. almost unpredictable to get right, FPJ got it right not because he planned it but because it just resonated (see what I did there?). I assume it will be challenging to replicate although Moser is close I would say.
Agreed. I won’t speak for the author, but some of the way that’s captured is by giving ‘bonus pts’ (especially to akrivia) for young founder-watchmakers who seem to have tapped into something. But yes, the mob is fickle.
Thanks for both comments. I guess what you meant was basically luck, as it is hard to predict the shifting taste of the mass. Often it is the timing as well. For example, FP Journe set up a boutique in Beijing in 2010 but had to exit 7 years later. The designs were perhaps just too early for the China market, where the collectors there then and maybe even now only go after Rolex and Patek. Companies can do all the right things, but timing and luck are just cannot be predicted.
This is exactly what I meant. Thanks for mentioning the Bonus Points, too. We will see how much they can make up for that factor 😜
Also I think you need to add Lange, they could be next to blow up
Good point and agree here. They would need to ship more Odysseus models though.
(And thanks for such a thought-provoking article!)
Great to see you around! Hadn’t seen you on IG in ages, so glad we can connect her.
I have just read your website. Nice work. Very impressive. Keep it up. Thank you for sharing your site, it's very useful and informative. You're the best writer!
There was a factor mentioned that is understated, the fact that Watchbox cornered the market and was able to increase prices. Auctions are the same, they are mechanisms to increase prices by showing high demand. If Watchbox did the same for one of the brands you listed, the result could be replicated
Thanks for chiming in and I agree. Watchbox's parent company is the AD to FPJ, Moser and some other brands, so it is their jobs to promote the brands. On the other hand, they need to pick the winners to bet on too. They are the "Insiders" in this industry, so it is useful to see which brands they put their time and money on. For the independent brands, they need to seek out such dealers who have social media followers and work hard to promote the brands. Cheers.
How would you evaluate Moritz Grossman in this context? I’ve seen the pieces in the metal, and they are quite something
I have posted a new list for 2022 and made sure to include Moritz Grossmann. I'd love to acquire a piece for myself in the future too. Please check out the article here https://watchcollecting.substack.com/p/which-brands-might-be-the-next-fp-9e7
Hello! I'm not familiar with Moritz Grossman and I just did some searches on the web. The company was founded in 2008 and yearly production volume is 200. I searched on Chrono24 there were 17 watches. In comparison, there were 171 FP Journe watches and 50 De Bethune watches for sale. It seems that Moritz Grossman is a very exclusive brand with low production volume. I'm sure that Moritz Grossman produces exceptional timepieces based on what I read about them. Among German brands, Lange is the undisputed leader in terms of brand reputation. If we consider potential value growth similar to FP Journe, Lange is often considered a top choice, as they seem to be under-valued. The scarcity of sports model Odysseus should help overall brand image. I didn't include Lange in this article as it is not an independent company. Hope this helps!