July Update: Are Reports Of The Watch Industry's Collapse Greatly Exaggerated?
Also, local man (me) talks incessantly about his own watches + in-depth on the Rolex Submariner 5513
July snuck up on us, so here are some thoughts on impending collapse, the Rolex Submariner 5513, a few auction finds, and even a peek at my own “collection.”
In this update: Cartier, Fujifilm, Gallet, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Patek Philippe, Rolex Submariner 5513, Royal Ascot, TAG Heuer, Universal Geneve, and more.
Everywhere you look, there’s this hyperbolic sense of impending collapse.
Business of Fashion recently asked, will the fashion industry collapse? A high-profile vintage dealer then asked, is the vintage watch market plummeting? Even Teddy has asked if the watch industry is dying.
Surely you could make these claims about collapse even more general (democracy) or more specific (vintage Rolex), but I mostly tend to think that, like the well-worn quote from Mark Twain about his death being greatly exaggerated, so too are these assertions – even if there is cause for concern.1
From the 2010s through the early pandemic, the trend line was up-and-to-the-right, and watches (and luxury) became big business. Now these brands are a lot bigger, and with more to lose. As we’ve discussed, the conventional wisdom seems to be to take it slow while things settle.
The result of this is watches that feel formulaic or downright boring. Better introduce a sports watch; better still if you can find a connection to the almighty Genta (seriously, we’re still running this play?). Bezels and dials might change color, but not much else changes. All the while, prices continue up and up. BoF writes:
“Now the approach is more formulaic, akin to selling luxury merch in an overpriced supermarket. This is a world where it is easier to copy the shape of a box bag that is working at another brand than it is to come up with a unique shape of your own. Customers have cottoned onto this, and would rather spend their money on one-of-a-kind experiences or hard-to-find vintage pieces than have the same thing as everyone else.”
During the run-up, everyone wanted a Nautilus, Daytona, or Vuitton Neverfull because it seemed like everyone else had one. Ironically, it’s this same ubiquity that’s now made the tide turn against these accessible luxuries. Instead, consumers want something that feels unique.
In fact, this is the fundamental tension of “fashion,” first articulated by George Simmel more than 100 years ago.2
On the one hand, humans have a tendency to imitate others (desire to fit in); on the other, we have a tendency to distinguish ourselves from others (desire to stand out). This push and pull is what defines fashion, luxury, and trends.
Over the last few years, an entire system seemed to orient itself toward what it thought consumers wanted, but it turns out that’s not it. BoF closes:
“The result of all this is a fashion industry that fails to inspire customers, and not even ourselves. The current formulaic, corporatised, anodyne approach to fashion is clearly not working. This leaves me with the sinking feeling that things are about to break down. Maybe that’s what fashion needs to find its courage to be creative again.”
If we swap “fashion” for “watches,” does this statement ring true? There are a lot of exciting things happening at the margin of vintage collecting or independent watchmaking, but what about the bigger watch brands?
Articles Of The Month
Before we get to the best articles of the month, allow me a bit of self-promotion:
📺 To watch:
Me talking about one of my least favorite subjects
I talked about a few of my own watches with Tom, a local YouTuber. His channel is new but the product value is quite high, so a huge thanks to Tom for having me. As the thumbnail below gives away, I brought along a few of my favorite watches from Rolex, Tudor, Cartier, Jaeger-LeCoultre, and a couple of others.
Check it out and give us a thumbs up if you’re so inclined:
With my mind spinning about those various impending collapses, I decided it was as good a time as any to write about the Rolex Submariner 5513, perhaps the most simple and classic of vintage Rolex references.
📝 To read:
A Collector’s Guide to the Rolex Submariner Ref. 5513
Writing about the Rolex Submariner 5513 in 2024 is kind of like reviewing Led Zeppelin IV or Godfather II or maybe even just Oppenheimer in today's world, where culture moves faster than the flick of a thumb scroll. There's not much that hasn't been said about an exceedingly good but simple dive watch, or so it might seem. But also, sometimes it's worth remembering: "Black Dog" just freakin' rocks.
Which is exactly why I wanted to write about the Rolex Submariner 5513 – it just freakin' rocks.
This Collector’s Guide focuses on the “everyman” Sub that Rolex produced for nearly three decades. It’s a brief discussion of dial types, the evolution of the Oyster bracelet, and case condition before getting to the market and why it’s a good time to pay attention to the 5513. Collector’s Guide: Rolex Submariner Ref. 5513.
Comparing Condition: Three Patek Philippe 1463 Chronographs
Pretty much everyone has said the Patek 1463 that sold for $328,500 at Antiquorum Geneva in May was among the best they’d ever seen (and should’ve sold for even more), so I took the opportunity to compare it to two more examples that sold last month to see if we could better understand why.
As dealers continue to preach condition, condition, condition, it’s important to at least grasp the fundamentals of what this means so (1) you can understand and appreciate what makes a great 1463 a great 1463, and so (2) you don’t get screwed.
📸 To glance:
The Watches of Royal Ascot 2024
The weeklong Royal Ascot dates back at least a few hundred years, with Queen Anne first declaring the English countryside about 30 miles west of London an ideal place for "horses to gallop at full stretch" in 1711. By 1752, The annual Royal Ascot horse race was a full-on social scene, with the poor Duke of Bedford once arriving in London during Royal Ascot races and lamenting, "I could find no soul to dine or sup with." By then, other entertainment for racegoers included cockfighting, prize-fighting, jugglers, ballad singers, ladies on stilts, and freak shows.
Most of these diversions are frowned upon nowadays (and freak shows are reserved for U.S. presidential debates), but British royalty, aristocracy, influencers, and interlopers like me descend on the Ascot Racecourse every June for the premier social event of the season, Royal Ascot.
🎧 To listen:
I’ve had a variety of guests on the last few episodes of Hodinkee Radio, perhaps you’ll like one of these:
Stay tuned because I’m excited about this week’s episode.
The Thrift Store
As I’ve done in the last few issues, a few under-the-radar finds across smaller auctions and eBay:
Gallet chronographs have just about everything you’d want from vintage chronos: steel cases with faceted lugs, solid movements, and clean, functional dials. Here’s a vintage Gallet Multichron on eBay – underneath a scratched-up crystal looks like a pretty clean multi-scale dial, though the listing doesn’t have the greatest photos. I love the old-school appeal of tachymeter and telemeter scales in different colors. Some risk, but this listing feels like the eBay sweet spot. (Ends 7/3)
A NOS TAG Heuer F1 with a racing story?
Next, here’s an original TAG Heuer Formula 1 with a racing story to tell, according to the listing.
In 1987, driver Jochen Mass won an IMSA race and was given this TAG Heuer F1 in the winner’s circle (IMSA operates 24 Hours of Daytona, among others). He gave it to his crew chief who eventually gave it to the seller here. “Never worn, never wound,” the listing adds (the F1 is quartz).
As additional evidence, the seller provides a photo of himself from the race, sitting on the race car. For what it’s worth, his single other listing is a sweet 1980s Porsche bomber jacket. In the photos for that listing you can even see he’s got the same mustache as the photos from that IMSA race, some 30 years later. (Ends 7/2!)
Jaeger-LeCoultre Reverso ‘Art Deco’
Meanwhile, Artcurial is holding a watch auction on July 8. There aren’t a ton of exciting watches, but this Jaeger-LeCoultre Reverso “Art Deco” is one of my favorite neo-vintage era Reversos. On the dial side is a guilloche dial, but it flips over to reveal a skeletonized, engraved caliber.
JLC produced the limited edition Art Deco throughout the 90s: 900 in pink gold like this example and 200 in white gold with a salmon dial. It uses the Grand Taille case, measuring 42x26mm. Estimate is $11–16,000, so with this model usually being listed closer to $20,000, it’ll be interesting to see where it lands.
Universal Geneve Tri-Compax & Patek Philippe 570
Finally, this is total spectator sport stuff, but Hess in Florida has an upcoming sale, too, and I’m curious to see where these two go. The pink gold Universal Geneve Tri-Compax (est. $5-7,000) looks quite nice, while the Patek Calatrava 570 (est. $40-60,000) looks…well, you can see it. That said, a steel 570 with Arabic numerals, Hausmann-signed, and long Patek signature makes it rare and the world seems to be coming back to Calatravas right now.
Finally, for years, Japan's Fujifilm pivoted away from its legacy camera business to focus on healthcare. But thanks in large part to TikTok, its retro-themed X100 digital cameras are now a roaring success.
-Tony
P.S. Let me know if you’ll be in Chicago or at Windup next weekend so I can say hey; we’re also hosting an event during the show – respond via email if you’d like to hear more!
Or alternatively, the old quip that Wall Street has predicted nine of the past five recessions.