20 Predictions and Rumors for 2025

Death to the geezer watch, media and retail realignment, trends and new releases – insights and what to expect this year.

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I know there are plenty of ways to spend subscription dollars nowadays. I get it – I subscribe to a lot of sh*t too. If you care about watches, my only ask is that you consider subscribing to one independent creator. Like supporting independent watchmakers, it helps sustain an industry worth preserving.

For now, Unpolished is a 2x/week newsletter. Based on the last 24 hours, I’m confident it’ll deliver much more in a year. Every subscription helps grow independent media that’s bigger than just a newsletter. That’ll lead into my media prediction at the end of today’s letter.

Let’s get to 20 predictions and a few rumors for 2025.

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I don’t like prediction posts. Most watch-related “predictions” are tossed-off, vague ideas about trends. More gold watches, less sports — you know the type. I’m as guilty of it as anyone.

So I’m making specific predictions. There’s a decent chance this list turns out to be pretty embarrassing, but that’s the point. Writing down explicit predictions means we’ll check back in a year to see how it went.

Let’s get to the predictions and wild speculation.¹

In today’s newsletter: Breitling, Cartier, CPO, clocks, geezers, IWC, Jaeger-LeCoultre, MB&F, Omega, Rolex, TAG Heuer, Tudor, and the Theme of the Year.

Watch Releases

Could we see the Cartier Tank Guichet make a return in 2025?

• It’s a year of major anniversaries: Vacheron Constantin (270 years), Breguet (250), Audemars Piguet (150), Grand Seiko (65), MB&F (20), Rolex (120, while the GMT-Master turns 70 and the Datejust turns 80). Unlike a forgetful spouse, watch brands rarely let even the most mundane anniversary go unnoticed. My prediction: An all-new “M.A.D.2” from MB&F.

• Cartier re-releases the Tank Guichet. The Cartier Prive release each year is fairly predictable: One historical model, brought back in a few metals. This year, Cartier will revisit the Tank Guichet for the first time since 2005. A big chunk of precious metal – perhaps in platinum and rose – it’ll also be expensive.

• Tudor releases an updated Heritage Chronograph. It retired the first-gen Heritage Chrono in 2023, when it felt a little long in the tooth. At the 2023 Only Watch that never was, Tudor was set to auction a new-look 18K gold chronograph with a new in-house movement (what I’d give for that watch!). This year, the Heritage Chronograph will return, looking a lot like the “Big Block” Chronographs of the 1980s and ‘90s. Black Bay Chronos have never really done it for me, so I’ll be excited whenever the Heritage Chrono comes back.